biggish data

It looks like you figured out where I obtained this estimate from. I took into account a little more in depth about the average month having only 22 processing days. The VSC having 2006 applicaitons and 84 on here... that is roughly 4%. Maybe they receive 92 petitions a day (I can say 91.2 but reality is the number has to be an integer) so we see maybe 4 or 5 filers to fall on the same day in the time line section of this site. So, both calculations are showing the same thing. There are some users on here without timelines. But only 3-5% is the most you can get. I searched online and it looks like this be the largest site for all types of visas, including the 129F. That small sample size has to do.

But whoever said that it could happen that no one in a full week on here gets approved (there is now one person that updated for their 6/26 NOA2)....c'mon.

I agree - of course anything's possible, but it's awfully unlikely.

M

Anything is possible; not likely though. I agree with you now after looking at the numbers that the sample is a good sample.

LOL - get out of my brain!

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-06-28 11:42:00

Those are not Visas. They are petitions to apply for a visa at the US embassy.

You Petition at a service center to be allowed to apply for a visa at the US embassy.
You do not apply for the visa at the service center.

Semantics - we're talking about NOA2s, the "completion" step for USCIS before forwarding to NSC / the embassy / interview stage. Pretty sure everybody knows that. The point isn't who approves the final visa. The point is that there has been a huge slowdown in Vermont on them finishing with and forwarding our cases.

M

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-06-28 11:09:00

Please disregard the above. The raw data wasn't accurate. I don't know what I was looking at. I will definitiely put the raw data on here in about 2 moins though.

BTW, already confirmed that at the national level your link data matches what I got at the other link - 4508 for March 2012. I didn't analyze just Vermont. Thanks for the link - will be browsing that!

M

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-06-28 11:07:00

Please disregard the above. The raw data wasn't accurate. I don't know what I was looking at.

I was starting to think I was nuts LOL!

BTDT

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-06-28 11:06:00

Downloaded the raw data from USCIS website for the Vermont Service Center receipts of I-129Fs in the months of July, 2011 - April 2012. I compared this to igor's list showing I-129Fs sent July, 2011 - April, 2012 as updated in the timelines of VisaJourney.com.

Hey, can you put up a link to the data? We're definitely looking at different stuff. Would love to have the bottom line...

M

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-06-28 11:01:00

Stats on the percent of I129F filers represented on VJ:

Here is a USCIS report saying they received 4508 I129F petitions in March 2012: http://www.uscis.gov...ce_data_qtr.pdf

Meanwhile, I ran the timeline list for each service center, all petitions, to determine how many users entered timelines on VJ for March 2012. It looks like this:
Cali: 95
Vermont: 105
Texas: 34
Total - 234

So the percent of petitions represented on VJ would be (234/4508)*100. It works out to 5.2%.

I was kind of surprised myself!

I agree that you have to know how to use the numbers, and individual date predictions are pretty impossible due to the huge standard deviation in NOA2 dates for any given NOA1 date.

I do think this is a pretty fair representative sample.

I'm using to gauge when the window of approvals for my NOA1 date might begin. And that date has been pushed back 3 weeks already (yes, the VJ prediction) due to the total lack of approvals coming through VSC.

M

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-06-28 10:57:00

Vermont woke up?!

8 NOA2s posted for 7/11...

http://www.visajourn...tion=1&sortby=2

Please let this continue!!!!!

M

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-07-11 20:04:00

any word on VSC

Six more on 7/12. Really hoping they keep making progress.

M

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-07-13 05:04:00

any word on VSC

So much for June, anyone get their Noaa2 at the end of the month. Lets home July treats us better.

I was glad to see a couple NOA2s get posted. A little progress certainly beats a complete standstill.

M

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-06-30 06:00:00

any word on VSC

this is probably the reality of vsc.

Ha ha!

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-06-22 11:19:00

petition or immigration number

I don't know about the case numbers, but as far as where you are in line, look here:

http://www.visajourn...tion=2&sortby=2

good luck....

M

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-08-19 20:09:00

NOA2s all at the end of the day?

Sorry - this is another obsessive NOA2 question. Does anybody know - do they send all the emails / texts / website updates all at once at the end of the day for everything done that day? Or do they send them throughout the day as they finish cases?

I see VJ is updated mostly in the evening but I figure that's when people are available to update VJ - it doesn't mean that's when they got the text / email.

I have an NOA1 date of 3/1 with VSC for a K1. I'm hitting the window right now, and every day I think "today could be the day!" Ack, it's stressful. Just wondering whether I can put it out of my mind during the day and only obsess in the evening.

Thanks,
M

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-09-07 13:13:00

Vermont Processing Date on 9/13

Sorry, I should have specified - I mean for K1s. So it sounds like they're still on 2/6. They've been saying that for weeks.

Mrs. Yanez - you're way ahead of me. After I get the NOA2 for the K1 it will route through NVC to Juarez, and it will take approximately another 2 to 3 months to get an interview date at Juarez.

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-09-13 13:52:00

Vermont Processing Date on 9/13

Has anyone called VSC today and asked what date they're processing? I'm at work and can't get on the phone and would really like to know if they've gotten to March yet. I'm at 196 days and I'm getting so weary.

Thanks for any info.

M

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-09-13 13:26:00

NOA2 from VSC after 201 days

Congraaaaaaaaaaats M im so happy 4 youuuuu!!! I wanna be next!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You're my timeline twin, so you should be coming right up. Fingers crossed for you.

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-09-18 20:08:00

NOA2 from VSC after 201 days

So relieved, all I can do is cry.

So glad this site is here because only you guys truly understand what this is like.

Best of luck to all...

M

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-09-18 15:01:00

VSC Not alowing for service request

No. I agree with you. I was just surprised thinking that you called VSC to get the March 3rd date.

So my NOA1 date is March 28th. I called because it has been past 5 months. I think anyone would try to give them a call. However, when I ask them to open up a service request, they say they cannot because they are currently working on applications with a 2/6 date. Ok. Fine. I'm just confused because petitioners who have applied in March are getting their NOA2's. You would think they'd update that date but....guess not. I dunno. Am I confused for no reason? Just...logically I would think they'd update that 2/6 date already.

I also see that people in March are getting approvals - however remember they don't go 100% in order. Those people are the lucky front runners. Look here: http://www.visajourn...tion=2&sortby=2 There are a *lot* of February filers still waiting.

My NOA1 date is March 1. I figure it could be any day now. But I know that there are a good number of others with NOA1s earlier than mine that haven't been approved yet. And to be fair, they should be attended to first. So I actually agree with them not doing a service request for a petition past their "official" date, and 2/6 is probably correct.

It's not the date of the newest petition they've looked at. It supposed to be the date that they think they've already looked at everybody from before that. So if they say that date, and you've heard nothing, there's a problem.

Clearly there's not a problem if I haven't heard anything - they just haven't gotten to me yet. I'm not one of the lucky first people in March. But I'm not concerned they've lost my petition or something, not at this point. There are too many people ahead of me to be worried about that.

What's delaying me? A problem of some kind that needs to be looked into - that is, a service request? Nah. They're just behind.

Now, for someone with an NOA of 2/6, if they haven't heard anything, yeah they should be getting concerned. That's what the service request is for. When everybody else in your date is done, and you still haven't heard anything and might be lost somewhere.

Make sense?

M

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-09-08 06:22:00

VSC Not alowing for service request

VSC is working on K-1 Visas applied on 3/3? How come they keep telling me 2/6? I just called by the way.... I-129F form.

I'm sure you have better information than I do. I got that date off the timelines page here on VJ. I guess that's not the official date. 2/6 sounds more in line with the fact that there are a lot of February petitions outstanding.

So will they take a service request for a petition dated after that, if it's over 5 months?

I saw an April filer (K1) post that they put in a service request. To be honest, I don't really think that's right when there are a bunch of Feb K1 filers & practically the whole month of March undone for K1. It seems like trying to push your way ahead in the line. I thought the purpose of the service request was to track down petitions that had gone beyond the normal processing time. April hasn't even been touched yet and shouldn't be until Feb & March are significantly handled. JMO.

M

Edited by M_&_R, 07 September 2012 - 07:16 PM.

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-09-07 19:15:00

VSC Not alowing for service request

My understanding was you're not eligible unless your NOA1 date is before their published "processing date" even if it's been more than 5 months. Ask them for the date they're currently working on. For example, VSC for K1 visas supposedly is working on 3/3 right now. So they wouldn't take a request unless the date is before 3/3. Even though if your date is 4/7 you are currently at 5 months.

But on the other hand, I just saw somebody post that they put one in and they are at 5 months.

Maybe it depends who answers the phone. Seems a lot of things do! :angry:

Good luck,
M

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-09-07 13:09:00

Vermont Service Center

OMG that is absolutely horrible. I don't know how you do it. Well I guess there is no other choice. I really hope it did start to pick up and you get your NOA2 asap. I keep telling my fiance I know its a long wait but its not that long if u think of it as us being married and spending the rest of our lives together. When you think that way these months aren't too bad. It helps a little or at least it did at first. lol

You're right - there's no choice. I do try to stay focused on the long term, and for myself I can deal with it. But our baby is 13 months old tomorrow and has never met his daddy. Those 3 or 4 months extra just for being at VSC are *huge* in his life, even though they're just a blip for us adults.

Just trying to be as patient as I can.

Good luck to you

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-08-24 07:23:00

Vermont Service Center

Yeah my first estimated date was November 27th with was about 2 weeks behind someone who sent their application a week after me.

People at CSC with NOA1 dates after mine, the same visa, the same beneficiary country, have interviews scheduled for September already, with no expedite. I don't even have an NOA2, and I can expect the rest of the process to take another 3 - 4 months.

Because of uscis's choice of routing & case distribution, CSC filers are being reunited with their loved ones literally months before analogous VSC filers. It's simply not right.

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-08-23 09:46:00

Vermont Service Center

My NOA1 date is 3/1. When I first entered my timeline (I think it was in April), it estimated the week of 7/19. Obviously that's long past. Now it says the week of Aug 30. We'll see. Point being, it backed up around 6 weeks over the course of the process - and all of that backing up happened after June 1. There was practically a dead stop for several weeks in July / Aug. It does seem to be picking up now. It's hard not to get my hopes up.

And they're NOT even giving permission to enter the country. All they're giving, is permission to APPLY to enter the country. WTH, really?!

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-08-23 09:42:00

Do you know why VSC is slow?

Your solution is narrow minded.

No matter what you say, it is completely unjustifiable that processing times vary by 50 to 100 percent based on state of residence. That's called mismanagement of current resources and it should be fixed today, not talked to death with pipe dreams about future expansion or b/s excuses about how it got to be that way.

Do all the upgrading and housecleaning you want, once daily operations are under control. That's not narrow mindedness. It's prioritizing.

M

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-09-11 11:03:00

Here's reality:

They have a certain number of adjudicators. They should manage them so that everyone has the same wait time.

If they hire more some time in the future, great. BUT THEY DON'T HAVE MORE RIGHT NOW. So what they need to do, is apportion their resources in an equitable manner.

And no, it's absolutely NOT fair that some people wait 3 months and others wait 7.

Also, compare apples to apples. I compared K1 visa petitions with beneficiaries in Mexico and NOA1 dates from 2/1/12 to 3/30/12. Know what I found? 8 at CSC - 7 have NOA2s and 3 have interviews set up already. 5 at VSC - with ZERO NOA2s. NONE. NADA.

Look me in the eye and tell me that's fair, when I paid the same fee those filers did. Better yet, look my baby in the eye and tell him it's fair that he has to wait twice as long to meet his daddy than he would if we lived in a CSC state.

THE WORKLOAD - NOW - IN REALITY - SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHARED. More adjudicators is NOT a reality TODAY or any time soon. Unfair wait times are a reality TODAY. Fair distribution of the workload would solve it TODAY.

How is that so hard to comprehend?

M

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-09-11 07:17:00

I meant the OP, not you personally (looking back at my post, I used the wrong pronoun: my apologies). The OP is writing to the president after waiting for 3 months in a 4 year process. She needs to chill out.

Ah - thank you for the clarification.

I understand her point though - she's not saying she should be skipped to the head of the line. She just realizes that if the line doesn't start moving, all of our wait times get longer no matter where we are in the line. No reason she shouldn't speak up about an inequity that affects her as well as so many others.

M

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-08-28 11:49:00

If you're stressed out now about waiting for 3 months, then you need to chill out because it doesn't end until he's a citizen, which is roughly four years from the time you first apply for the K1.

I'm not the May filer. I've been waiting over 5 months as it says in my signature. And I haven't seen my fiance in 18 months.

As I've said elsewhere, I'm not concerned for myself. I'm concerned for my 13 month old who has never met his father. It is - I'm sorry to anyone who can't deal with this - completely inappropriate to allocate resources so poorly that there are months of difference between the same petition & country. And yes I speak up to say so, since that few months is a big deal to a little baby waiting for his daddy.

Chill out? I didn't rant anywhere.

And as for stress from the rest of the process? I'm really not worried about that. I went through pregnancy, delivery, and baby's whole first year alone already. I can certainly deal with a little paperwork once his daddy gets here. I'm a pro at stress.

All I care about is getting him here. All I said was I shouldn't have to wait months longer than others - and neither should my baby - based on nothing more than the state we live in. I stand by that statement.

M

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-08-28 11:28:00

Really, it's not apples and oranges.

Any part of this process that takes you outside the normal processing times causes stress. Remember that being together means a normal life. It's hard for an immigrant to have a normal life if their employer is hassling them about an expiring EAD. Or if you can't get a driver's license without a short expiry date. It keeps you up at night wondering what's wrong with your case and if they could possibly ship you back home. It can indeed cause stress in the marriage.

Start thinking about your normal life beyond the separation you are experiencing now. Your immigration journey doesn't end with being reunited. A foreign spouse doesn't adjust more quickly to their new life in the US with an immigration ax hanging over their head. You want to NOT be separated and have that normal life? One of the first steps is to see beyond where you are now. Believe me, it will give you something else to think about and keep you busy while you wait out this stage of the journey.

I didn't say it's not stressful. Of course it is. I said it's different. Being stressed and together is 1000% better than being stressed and apart.

My 13 month old baby has never met his father. Believe me, I would take an additional 10 years of stress for myself if that little boy could have his daddy home a couple months sooner.

If you don't see that being together is better than being apart I don't know what else to say.

M

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-08-28 05:09:00

If you read my post, we have seen each other twice for a total of 5 weeks. Did you wake up on the wrong side of the bed this morning? Thanks for the drink tip!

While I thought the comment to you was really rude, and I completely sympathize with how you feel, it's true there are those of us out there who would be happy to have seen each other for a total of 5 weeks in the past 18 months. I haven't seen my fiance in the past 18 months at all. And we have a 13 month old baby. Believe me, I'm as pissed as you are right now.

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-08-27 20:14:00

CSC is no better than VSC,

You're kidding, right?

You can't compare a single case to a single case. But you can certainly compare averages. Right now, CSC is working on May/June. VSC is working on February. Get the facts.

M

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-08-27 20:07:00

Now I've filed for removal of conditions from VSC and it's going to take 10+ months to get approved (last year it was <3 months). In the meantime, David has to carry around a piece of paper wherever he goes stating that he's a PR. I think we need to get it laminated.

You're together during this time, right? Apples & oranges.

M

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-08-27 20:05:00

Again, why should you let the success of others cause you misery? Why shouldn't you want EVERYONE to be processed like CSC is being processed? The 2 suggestions are about as equally likely to be implemented, and yet you feel the better solution is to make everybody be as miserable as you, rather than hoping that everybody be as cheerful as CSC filers?

That was my point.

They're not equally likely to be implemented. Sharing the petitions across the offices has been done historically. Hiring more adjudicators would require additional funds. Your solution is extremely unlikely.

There is *nothing* wrong with naming reality. It's not raining on anyone's parade to say that everyone should have approximately the same wait time. It's just the truth.

M

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-08-27 20:00:00

help anyone in Mexico

I'm not sure which one of you is the USC - if you mean your fiancee is in Mexico and lost her Mexican passport, I don't know that there's anything you can do to speed things up. It took immense, ridiculous amounts of time for my Mexican fiance to collect the paperwork he needed for us to file the I129. The timeframe in which things get done down there is staggeringly long. Like 2 months between a hearing, and issuance of the documentation of the finding of the hearing. The good news is that it didn't mean there was anything wrong. All processes were that slow.

Sorry.

Keep calling regarding the extension to be sure the window stays open while you work this out.

M

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-06-30 05:56:00

194 DAYS AND STILL WAITING ON NOA2!!!!!

I'm at 195 today - you can see approvals from VSC on VJ timelines here: http://www.visajourn...tion=2&sortby=2

They've started working again. We should be hearing something any time now.

However that doesn't make it any less frustrating that there are people with NOA1 dates at CSC for Mexico with interviews in Aug / Sep / Oct. Really frustrating!

Hope we both hear soon...

M

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-09-12 09:40:00

Biometrics outside Juarez

Thanks for the reply - I about gave up on this post!

He'll get to Juarez on Sunday, do the medical Monday and the interview Wednesday. I'm thinking it may be possible to ask the embassy Tuesday if they have the results, and if not, do it over.

There's not a separate fee for it, is there? That might be an issue - if it's part of the visa fee they may not want to do it twice. I don't really want to try rescheduling, in case it affects the interview date, since they were both scheduled together.

Hard to guess what might go wrong.

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-11-01 13:47:00

Biometrics outside Juarez

Hello,

My fiance has a biometrics appointment in Mexico City on Tuesday 11/8. He has an interview scheduled in Juarez on Wednesday 11/14. Is that enough time for the biometrics results to get to Juarez? Do they give you the results to take with you, or is it on a computer, or does it go inter-office between ASCs?

Should he just reschedule and do the biometrics in Juarez? He expects to arrive there on Sunday 11/11 and do the medical on Monday 11/12. I've read people often do the medical 2 days ahead and the biometrics one day ahead, and then the interview, doing everything in Juarez.

Any input is appreciated.

Thanks,
M

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-10-18 13:12:00

How long from approval to visa in hand - Juarez

Hey, thanks for the info. He will be waiting in Juarez, so I'm trying to figure out how to handle hotel reservations when we don't know how long he'll need to be there. His interview is on the 14th, so there are 5 working days before the long Thanksgiving weekend. If he hits that, that's another 4 days, possibly busy ones - they would be in the US, the embassy is closed, maybe people come in there for the holiday, who knows. Just trying to get an idea how likely it is that he'll be stuck there that long.

M

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-11-02 18:57:00

How long from approval to visa in hand - Juarez

Hi,

My fiance's interview will be 11/14 in Juarez. We would like to have some idea how long he may need to wait there for the visa to be ready. Anyone who went through Juarez - how many days later were you able to pick up the papers?

Thanks,
M

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-11-01 13:09:00

NJ DMV and Latino Last Names - Problem!

I completely agree. My husband finds it so odd and wrong that I have both his last names now because as you know, that is not the culture and tradition in Mexico. I should have only taken his paternal last name. I have not decided if I wish to pursue the name change through the courts here yet or not. It is a ridiculous, round-about way to have the name I wanted and should have been able to take after I was married.

I am not sure you could get the marriage certificate amended to show only one last name for him since legally he has 2 last names and his full legal name needed to be on the marriage license and certificate. Not sure how the DMV thought you could manage that one.

You're right - the marriage certificate can't be amended, because there is nothing wrong with it. He has 2 last names. The problem is the complete lack of cultural sensitivity in the DMV. He doesn't have one, two-word last name. He has two last names - they are even labeled that way on Mexican ID and entered on separate blanks: apellido paternal and apellido maternal. If DMV chooses to see it as one, two word name, they're simply wrong.

That said, there isn't much I can do to change DMV.

I'm looking at a few options, not sure how it will be accomplished. In the long run, I'll have the name I want. It's pretty unreasonable to insist I pay $200 and wait extra time for it, but if I have to I will.

Just didn't foresee this particular hurdle.

Thanks for the replies.

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-12-17 20:50:00

NJ DMV and Latino Last Names - Problem!

Could you not go through a name change at the local probate court? Married women don't usually need to do that, but it is any option if you don't want both last names forever. DMV will have to honor such a document.

I don't know, I'll have to see what that would cost and how long it would take.

This is bullshit. I read Jay-Kay's reply as well, and it's ridiculous that they won't allow election of a single family name on the event of marriage.

I wrote to my representative in congress and asked him to help me get a driver's license with the correct name on it. If this isn't allowed, it's ridiculous and should be changed. It's not ok to force US citizens who are not attempting to commit any kind of fraud to take two last names if they marry an individual from a country where two last names are customary. If that's the case, the US citizen should have the right to elect the single last name that they prefer to use here, where we use one last name.

Totally out of control.

M_&_R

Not Telling

Mexico

2012-12-17 14:58:00